| 释义 |
Delphi|ˈdɛlfɪ|
[The name of a town of ancient Greece (see Delphian), the site of a sanctuary and oracle of Apollo.]
Applied attrib. to a method of forecasting technological and other events by analysing the results of a questionnaire sent to a panel of experts, who are therefore not subject to the inhibiting factors of a round-table discussion.
1963Dalkey & Helmer in Managem. Sci. Apr. 458 ‘Project Delphi’ is the name for a study of the use of expert opinion that has been intermittently conducted at the RAND Corporation. The technique employed is called the Delphi method. 1966O. Helmer Social Technol. i. 16 The Delphi technique has been used recently in a large-scale experiment in which several international panels of respondents were enlisted in an effort to arrive at long-range contingency forecasts of the state of the world twenty-five to fifty years hence. 1969Futures Sept. 417 The Delphi forecasts were..more accurate in 13 cases. 1972Times 9 Mar. 19 He intends to apply the so-called Delphi method in backing future productions—a kind of consensus forecasting technique in which panels of different experts are called in. 1983Leisure, Recreation & Tourism Abstr. iv. no. 1872, An overview and guide to the major forecasting methods currently in use. Trend extrapolation, Delphi forecasting, structural forecasting and dynamic forecasting are reviewed. |