| 释义 |
Monte Carlo|ˌmɒntɪ ˈkɑːləʊ|
[Name of a resort in Monaco famous for its gambling casino.]
1. a. Used attrib. to designate methods of estimating the solution to numerical problems that involve the random (or pseudo-random) sampling of numbers with some chosen frequency distribution.
1949Math. Tables & Other Aids to Computation III. 546 This method of solution of problems in mathematical physics by sampling techniques based on random walk models constitutes what is known as the ‘Monte Carlo’ method. The method as well as the name for it were apparently first suggested by John von Neumann and S. M. Ulam. 1950Nucleonics May 27 (heading) Random sampling (Monte Carlo) techniques in neutron attenuation problems. 1955Sci. Amer. May 90/3 The accuracy of a Monte Carlo approximation improves only as the square of the number of trials. 1961New Scientist 16 Mar. 678/3 This method of imitating the apparently random fluctuation of events in the real world which it is unnecessary or impossible to study in detail, is the crux of the Monte Carlo simulation technique. 1964Guardian 19 June 6/6 (Advt.), Familiarity with Monte Carlo methods and computer programming would be an advantage. 1970O. Dopping Computers & Data Processing xx. 328 An important field of application of random numbers is in the Monte Carlo methods. They are based on the repetition of a computation in a great number of cases, where one or more parameters are allowed to vary in a random fashion from one computation to the next. Ibid., Monte Carlo methods can also be used for computing determined results. For instance, we can, in principle, calculate an approximation of π/4 by investigating which fraction of a number of points, chosen at random in a square, are inside the inscribed circle. 1972Computers & Humanities VII. 39 Monte Carlo methods of simulation were applied to a population model for Paleolithic human populations.
b. absol.
1951Nat. Bureau of Standards Appl. Math. Ser. (U.S.) XII. iii. 6/1 In some instances..a judicious combination of Monte Carlo applied to the physical model with analysis of the equations is indicated. 1962D. Slayton in Into Orbit 23 A branch of probability mathematics which the scientists call ‘Monte Carlo’—because it boils down, really to nothing more than a complex way of figuring the odds. 1969Nature 15 Mar. 999/2 Monte Carlo involves, essentially, a sequence of operations on a sequence of random numbers {ob}ui{cb}, where, ideally, the {ob}ui{cb} are independent and identically distributed. 1969J. Argenti Managem. Techniques 172 Monte Carlo is a form of simulation..and both often require the use of a computer. It is possible, however, to use Monte Carlo with pencil and paper.
c. Monte Carlo fallacy: the fallacy that the probability of any particular outcome to one of a series of repeated but independent events of chance is inversely dependent upon the previous outcomes (so that, e.g., a succession of failures is thought to increase the probability of success on the next occasion).
1957Sci. Amer. Nov. 136/2 In our studies of the manifestations of subjective probability in gambling we have given particular attention to the Monte Carlo fallacy; the well-nigh unanimous belief that after a run of successes a failure is inevitable, and vice versa. 1973A. J. Ayer Central Questions of Philos. viii. 164 The notorious Monte Carlo fallacy consists in assuming that because the odds against an even number's coming up ten times in succession are over a thousand to one, there is equally little chance of the tenth spin yielding an even number, if the previous nine have done so.
2. Monte Carlo rally: an annual international car rally, first held in 1911, of which the final stages take place in Monte Carlo (also shortened to Monte Carlo).
1950R. Lowry Monte Carlo Rally ix. 76 There are Rallies ideally suited to such tastes but the Monte Carlo is not one of them. 1973Guardian 26 Jan. 13/1 Irate Monte Carlo Rally drivers..complained about speed traps set up by the French police... On the Monte Carlo, two reports of excessive speeding mean automatic disqualification. |