vannevar

(jargon)/van'*-var/ A bogus technological prediction or aforedoomed engineering concept, especially one that fails byimplicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly,incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in factthe learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutionsare common, and competition is the rule. The prototype wasVannevar Bush's prediction of "electronic brains" the size ofthe Empire State Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalentcooling system for their tubes and relays, a prediction madeat a time when the semiconductor effect had already beendemonstrated. Other famous vannevars have includedmagnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, videotex, and apaper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimatelimit on areal density for integrated circuits that was infact less than the routine densities of 5 years later.

单词	vannevar
释义	vannevar vannevar (jargon)/van'*-var/ A bogus technological prediction or aforedoomed engineering concept, especially one that fails byimplicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly,incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in factthe learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutionsare common, and competition is the rule. The prototype wasVannevar Bush's prediction of "electronic brains" the size ofthe Empire State Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalentcooling system for their tubes and relays, a prediction madeat a time when the semiconductor effect had already beendemonstrated. Other famous vannevars have includedmagnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, videotex, and apaper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimatelimit on areal density for integrated circuits that was infact less than the routine densities of 5 years later.
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