probabilityn.
/ˌprɒbəˈbɪlᵻti/, U.S. /ˌprɑbəˈbɪlᵻdi/ 1.
a. The property or fact of being probable, esp. of being uncertain but more likely than not; the extent to which something is likely to happen or be the case; the appearance of truth, or likelihood of being realized, which a statement or event bears in the light of present evidence.Earliest in by probability (see 1b).
ΘΚΠ
the mind > mental capacity > belief > uncertainty, doubt, hesitation > probability, likelihood > [noun]
weenOE
likeliheadc1405
likelinessc1405
likelihood1427
probabilityc1443
probablenessc1443
likehood1525
towardness1549
main chance1577
towardliness1579
c1443 R. Pecock Reule of Crysten Religioun (1927) 28 (MED) Mannys resoun in þis lijf wiþoute helpe of feiþ can not fynde and knowe bi certeynte..or probabilte þat þe feende is oure enemye.
c1487 J. Skelton tr. Diodorus Siculus Bibliotheca Historica i. 60 Ther be dyuerse thynges of probabilite in this mater whiche be doon in dyuerse partyes of Asye.
1553 T. Wilson Rule of Reason (new ed.) sig. Iijv In..gatheryng of coniectures, in causes that are doubtfull, when probabilitie onely, & no assured knowelege, boulteth out the trueth of a matier.
1623 J. Mede Let. 17 May in H. Ellis Orig. Lett. Eng. Hist. (1824) 1st Ser. III. 150 Other reports there are, but without any probability of truth, and therefore I will not mention them.
1699 E. Ward London Spy I. x. 5 To examine the Probability, and Reasonableness of former Transactions.
1736 Bp. J. Butler Analogy of Relig. Introd. p. iii Probability is the very Guide of Life.
1790 W. Paley Horæ Paulinæ i. 2 In order to give colour and probability to the fraud.
1823 J. Gillies tr. Aristotle Rhetoric ii. xxiii. 348 Truth and probability are the causes of assent.
1886 T. Hardy Mayor of Casterbridge II. iii. 39 He wished..he could know for certain what was at present only strong probability.
1902 G. S. Whitmore Last Maori War ix. 146 I resolved to..ascertain whether a rumoured invasion by the Ngatimaniapoto tribe from Mokau had any probability.
1960 K. M. Kenyon Archaeol. in Holy Land ii. 45 It may be inferred with a high degree of probability that this Pre-Pottery Neolithic A settlement of Jericho was based on a successful system of agriculture.
2004 Independent (Compact ed.) 8 May 3/3 There's some disagreement about the probability but the fact that that link has been made is quite accepted.
b. in (also †by) all probability: probably; considering what is probable. Formerly also † by (also †in) probability.
ΘΚΠ
the mind > mental capacity > belief > uncertainty, doubt, hesitation > probability, likelihood > [adverb]
welleOE
lightly1395
likely1395
likinglyc1395
by (also of) likeliheadc1405
by (also of) likelinessc1405
by all (also most) likelihood1427
provably1460
of (all) likelihood1491
belike?1531
like1548
belikelya1551
in (all) likelihood1570
probably1600
by (also in) probabilitya1602
in (also by) all probability1617
presumably1658
prob.1730
nigh hand1848
predictably1914
prolly1922
odds-on1976
c1443 [see sense 1a].
c1449 R. Pecock Repressor (1860) 42 (MED) Bi other strengthe than bi probabilite and likelihode, no feith had bi Holi Scripture mai reule oure lyuyng and conuersacioun to God.
1575 G. Turberville Bk. Faulconrie 9 That Eagle..is by al probabilitie and coniecture, no inwarde Eagle, but a fugitiue, and a rangler.
a1602 W. Perkins Cases of Consc. (1619) 140 In probabilitie they could not bee either many or great.
1615 W. Lawson Country Housewifes Garden (1626) 23 The compasse and roomth that each tree by probabilitie will take and fill.
1617 F. Moryson Itinerary ii. 62 The Lord Deputies going into the field,..in all probability could not be for some two moneths after.
1697 N. Luttrell Diary in Brief Hist. Relation State Affairs (1857) IV. 202 Otherwise in probability they had fallen into the hands of the French.
1728 J. Gay Beggar's Opera iii. xiv. 56 Therefore, I beg you, Gentlemen, look well to yourselves, for in all probability you may live some Months longer.
1835 C. Dickens Let. 14 Dec. (1965) I. 105 I shall not in all human probability be home before Wednesday Week.
1880 S. Haughton Six Lect. Physical Geogr. ii. 50 These cliffs corresponding in all probability to ancient lines of faults.
1922 E. von Arnim Enchanted April (1989) 70 They descended gingerly, holding up their skirts just as if they would be wanting them another time and had not in all probability finished with skirts for ever.
1987 Asian Art 1 i. 65 In all probability the handle was already damaged when the vessel was found.
2004 H. Strachan Make a Skyf, Man! xii. 127 He will in all probability jerk his way to blindness soon enough. Maybe even death.
2.
a. An instance of the property or fact of being probable; a probable event or circumstance; a thing judged likely to be true, to exist, or to happen.
ΘΚΠ
the mind > mental capacity > belief > uncertainty, doubt, hesitation > probability, likelihood > [noun] > instance(s) of
probabilityc1454
probable1638
feasible1661
likelihood1759
c1454 R. Pecock Folewer to Donet 70 (MED) Of euer eiþir of þe seid premyssis concludyng for feiþ, y haue not oonli likli euydencis, whiche ben clepid in scolis of logik probable euydencis or probabilitees, but y haue sure certeynte bi kunnyng or bi experience.
1576 A. Fleming Panoplie Epist. Argt. 375 Hee beginneth..with the infancie of Alexander..which ministred manifest and manifold probabilities of things which came afterwards to passe.
1593 T. Nashe Christs Teares P 2 b Some there be that fantasie phylosophicall probabilities of the Trinities vnexistence.
1620 T. Granger Syntagma Logicum 80 Many probabilities concurring preuaile much.
1690 J. Locke Ess. Humane Understanding iv. vi. 297 Possibly inquisitive and observing Men may, by strength of Judgment, penetrate farther, and on Probabilities taken from wary Observation..often guess right at what Experience has not yet discovered to them.
1769 ‘Junius’ Stat Nominis Umbra (1772) I. xvi. 112 Arguments..have been drawn from inferences and probabilities.
1788 A. Hamilton Federalist Papers lx. 173 No rational calculation of probabilities would lead us to imagine, that the disposition, which a conduct so violent and extraordinary would imply, could ever find its way into the national councils.
1856 J. A. Froude Hist. Eng. I. ii. 152 Wolsey's return to power was discussed openly as a probability.
1866 ‘G. Eliot’ Felix Holt III. xl. 109 You must not strain probabilities in that way.
1909 H. James Ambassadors (new ed.) Pref. xi One could only go by probabilities, but there was the advantage that the most general of the probabilities were virtual certainties.
1973 N.Y. Law Jrnl. 31 Aug. 1/1 There is a substantial probability that he will not appear in court on the return date.
2002 Econ. & Polit. Weekly 20 Apr. 1504/1 Smaller cities too are faced with a very high probability of damage and loss in case of an earthquake.
b. With the. The most probable thing; the most likely outcome or explanation.
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1786 T. Jefferson Let. 13 Aug. in Papers (1954) X. 243 This may be ready within a few days, but the probability is that I shall be long getting an opportunity of sending it to you.
1843 R. J. Graves Syst. Clin. Med. xii. 133 Blisters [applied] would be doubtful, and the probability was that the patient would sink before they vesicated.
1873 T. Hardy Pair of Blue Eyes II. i. 21 The probability is that, had not Mrs. Swancourt been left alone in her carriage under the tree, this man would have remained in his unobserved seclusion.
a1933 J. A. Thomson Biol. for Everyman (1934) I. xv. 392 With ‘green’ oysters..the probability is that the green colour is due to intruding parasites.
1979 Financial Rev. (Melbourne) 27 Apr. 2 The probability is that the commission will deliver another of its weasel judgements, recognising merit on all sides.
2001 J. Diamond C: Because Cowards get Cancer Too (new ed.) iv. 134 If all the glands on either side were cancerous he'd know..that the probability was that the cancer had spread beyond my neck.
c. Chiefly North American. In plural. Probable weather conditions; weather forecasts. Now rare or merged with general sense at 2a.Formerly applied esp. to forecasts provided by the Signal Office of the War Department in the U.S. (cf. Old Probabilities n. at old adj. Compounds 4).
ΚΠ
1855 N. P. Willis Out-doors at Idlewild xliii. 277 The daily trip of the family wagon to Newburgh... Ah, the event that it is!—its arrangements and discussions—..time of starting and list of commissions—probabilities of weather and proper cloakings and bonnetings.
1872 G. Kennan Aurora of Sea 433/1 I thought no more about the ‘probabilities’ as to weather until almost midnight.]
1875 Appletons' Jrnl. Apr. 438/2 The working and scientific head of the Signal-Office at Washington—from the identical brain that supplies the famous ‘probabilities’.
1886 Pop. Sci. Monthly Aug. 546 The official publications embrace the ‘probabilities’ and the so-called ‘weather-maps’.
1909 L. M. Montgomery Anne of Avonlea xiv. 148 Nobody in Avonlea ever thought of looking in the Charlottetown dailies for weather probabilities.
1942 Times 6 Aug. 5/5 Could not the Government meteorologists..be authorised to tell us..every day..what are the weather probabilities for the ensuing three or four days?
1970 News Jrnl. (Mansfield, Ohio) 26 Apr. 12/1 Weather probabilities, to some degree, affect everyone's daily life.
1990 Mountain Democrat (Placerville, Calif.) 5 Dec. 1/1 The outlook, which charts weather probabilities for the entire nation from an office in Washington, D.C., estimates [etc.].
3. Mathematics. As a measurable quantity: the extent to which a particular event is likely to occur, or a particular situation be the case, as measured by the relative frequency of occurrence of events of the same kind in the whole course of experience, and expressed by a number between 0 and 1.An event that cannot happen has probability 0; one that is certain to happen has probability 1. Probability is commonly estimated by the ratio of the number of successful cases to the total number of possible cases, derived mathematically using known properties of the distribution of events, or estimated logically by inferential or inductive reasoning (when mathematical concepts may be inapplicable or insufficient).
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > probability
probability1692
chance1785
posterior probability1921
prior probability1921
transition probability1922
1692 J. Arbuthnot Of Laws of Chance Pref. sig. A9v There is likewise a Calculation of the Quantity of Probability founded on Experience, to be made use of in Wagers.
1718 A. de Moivre (title) The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probability of events in play.
1764 T. Bayes in Philos. Trans. 1763 (Royal Soc.) 53 376 The probability of any event is the ratio between the value at which an expectation depending on the happening of the event ought to be computed, and the value of the thing expected upon it's [sic] happening.
1788 Chambers's Cycl. (new ed.) Probability of an event, in the Doctrine of Chances, is greater or less according to the number of chances by which it may happen, compared with the whole number of chances by which it may either happen or fail.
1838 A. De Morgan Ess. Probabilities Pref. At the end of the seventeenth century, the theory of probabilities was contained in a few isolated problems, which had been solved by Pascal, Huyghens, James Bernoulli, and others.
1884 tr. H. Lotze Logic ii. ix. 369 For each draw the probability of a white ball being drawn would = 7/30, so that the probability of two whites being drawn in succession would = 7/30·7/30 = 49/900.
1995 New Scientist 7 Jan. 44/4 The probability is 1 in 57 and this is the same as odds of 56 to 1.
2001 R. Gregory in R. Catlow & S. Greenfield Cosmic Rays 57 When there are just a few photons detected by counters, the probabilities of where a photon will go are represented in QED as arrows in Feynman diagrams.
Compounds
C1. Chiefly Mathematics and Physics. Of or relating to mathematical probability.
probability calculus n. [compare French calcul des probabilités set of rules for calculating mathematical probabilities (1765).]
ΚΠ
1922 Mind 31 257 What is the bearing of the probability-calculus on conduct.
1988 Amer. Jrnl. Public Health 78 1532/1 When their minds do not change according to Bayes's theorem or to other rules of the probability calculus, people are said to be making inferential mistakes with names like ‘the gambler's fallacy’, ‘overconfidence’, and ‘availability bias’.
probability field n.
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1928 Science 31 Aug. 194/2 Born carried over Einstein's idea concerning the electromagnetic field as a probability field for the positions of the light quanta.
2004 Bradenton Herald (Nexis) 2 Jan. 8 In quantum physics, particles exist as probability fields and do not have a definite position when no one is observing the particles.
probability judgement n.
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1914 C. D. Broad Perception, Physics & Reality ii. 150 The correct probability is always that relative to the knowledge of the person who makes the probability-judgment.
1991 Philos. Perspectives 5 163 The evidentialist's argument essentially involves two independent probability-judgments.
probability measure n.
ΚΠ
1913 Biometrika 9 299 The method of mean square contingency, leading to a probability measure of the independence of the two characters.
1971 Sci. Amer. Aug. 95/1 Mathematical probability is based on a special function that assigns to each subset A of a given set Ω a positive real number that represents the probability that a point selected ‘at random’ from the set Ω will actually be in A. This function is called a ‘probability measure’ on the set Ω.
probability proposition n.
ΚΠ
1888 Mind 13 279 This class-fractional proposition cannot be substituted for the above probability-proposition.
1955 Jrnl. Symbolic Logic 20 202 The limiting-frequency interpretation again makes probability-propositions undecidable.
probability relation n.
ΚΠ
1893 Philos. Rev. 2 687 Presuming that the same probability relations exist in another set of measurements, we can be sure of obtaining results within a given limit of variation with a definite degree of probability.
1982 J. Campbell Grammatical Man i. iv. 62 A given amount of evidence results in a degree of belief in a statement and there is a logical relation between the evidence and the statement. This is called the probability relation.
probability relationship n.
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1945 Ann. Math. Statistics 16 133 Any probability relationship will be stated on the assumption that H is true, unless a statement to the contrary is explicitly made.
2004 Dædalus (Nexis) Winter 72/1 Biblical historians had used such diagrams to represent causal hypotheses and the probability relationships of their variables.
probability statement n.
ΚΠ
1925 Jrnl. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 20 229 We can have pineapples, pig iron, garlic and kid gloves each represented in the same probability statement by its own law of demand.
2003 Amer. Statistician (Nexis) 1 Feb. 37 The point of this activity is to gain some understanding behind the probability statements made by a meteorologist.
probability value n.
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1886 Mind 11 595 There result determinate probability-values where the totality of all possibilities can be exhausted by a number of such suppositions.
1990 Nucleic Acids Res. 18 318/2 (caption) 75 out of 169 DNA sequence-generated restriction maps (probes) had probability values < 0.05 for the highest ranked mapsearch alignments.
C2.
probability amplitude n. Physics the amplitude of the wave function of a particle, equal to the square of the function and representing the probability of the particle's being in a given volume element.
ΚΠ
1927 Proc. National Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 13 803 What we want to know is the probability amplitude of j, k, s, jz = m.
2001 R. Gregory in R. Catlow & S. Greenfield Cosmic Rays 57 The probabilities of events are given by the squares of the lengths of the arrows, called the ‘probability amplitude’.
probability curve n. a graph of probabilities, esp. of a probability distribution.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > graph
probability curve1863
Pearson1908
scatter diagram1925
scattergraph1935
correlogram1938
scattergram1938
scatter plot1971
1863 T. H. Safford Catal. Standard Polar & Clock Stars p. lxiii The fourth line gives the theoretical distribution according to the probability curve, taking the probable error of a single point as 0.15″.
1914 Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers 77 1549 The practical difficulty with the plotting of Fig. 1 is the great curvature of the lines... It has been removed by using paper ruled with lines spaced in accordance with a probability curve, or, as it is otherwise called, the normal law of error.
1964 M. McLuhan Understanding Media v. 52 Some computer that translates our least gesture into a new probability curve.
1999 Materials World Sept. 543/2 The Monte Carlo Simulation technique. This uses probability curves for the five most critical cost invariables.
probability density n. [after German Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichte ( A. A. Markov Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (1912) v. 155; also R. von Mises 1919, in Math. Zeitschr. 5 70)] Statistics a probability distribution that is a continuous function.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > distribution
distribution1854
random distribution1882
frequency distribution1895
probability distribution1895
Poisson distribution1898
binomial distribution1911
Student's t-distribution1925
sampling distribution1928
probability density1931
Poisson1940
beta distribution1941
Cauchy distribution1948
geometric distribution1950
1931 Ann. Math. Statistics 2 372 The probability density..has spherical symmetry about the origin.
1939 H. Jeffreys Theory of Probability i. 24 We shall usually write this briefly P(dx|p) = f′(x)dx, dx on the left meaning the proposition that x lies in a particular range dx. f′(x) is called the probability density.
1994 Nature 24 Mar. 298/1 The answer is given by the conditional probability density in the form of a beta distribution.
probability density function n. Statistics a probability distribution for a continuous random variable.
ΚΠ
1928 Amer. Math. Monthly 35 492 Dr. Fry contrives to present..the precise meaning of a relative frequency function—which could very suitably be termed..a ‘probability density’ function, although it is not thus labeled by the author.
1959 M. Sesieni & A. Yaspan Operations Res. 81 Demand for water from a utility company can vary in a continuous manner, and a continuous probability density function might be more appropriate for describing such demand.
2003 Ann. Nuclear Energy 30 17 An analytical expression is obtained for the probability density function of the multiplication factor of an array of spheres.
probability distribution n. Statistics a function giving the probability of a value of x as a function of x; spec. one whose integral over an interval (if continuous) or sum over a range of values (if discrete) is the probability that the variate specified by it will lie within that interval or range.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > distribution
distribution1854
random distribution1882
frequency distribution1895
probability distribution1895
Poisson distribution1898
binomial distribution1911
Student's t-distribution1925
sampling distribution1928
probability density1931
Poisson1940
beta distribution1941
Cauchy distribution1948
geometric distribution1950
1895 K. Pearson in Philos. Trans. (Royal Soc.) A. 186 381 A probability distribution in which the ‘contributory causes’ are not independent, and not equally likely to give equal deviations in excess and defect.
1944 H. Reichenbach Philos. Found. Quantum Mech. xxiv. iii The specification of these values is therefore replaced by the statement of their probability distributions.
1991 Euromoney Jan. 89/3 Predict! uses complex Monte Carlo modelling which builds up probability distributions based on such programmed-in risk elements as trends in commodity prices and interest rates.
probability function n. Statistics a probability distribution; any function that is everywhere non-negative and whose integral between −∞ and +∞ is 1.
ΚΠ
1886 Ann. Math. 2 59 The probability functions cannot give probable, mean, or average errors differing materially in numerical value.
1906 Acta Univ. Lundensis I. v. 8 The values of the probability function ϕ(x) are most conveniently tabulated by Sheppard.
1991 A. Noble in C. Bondi New Applic. Math. iii. 68 When the number of trials (n) becomes very large, these two discrete probability functions, binomial and Poisson, are approximated very closely by a famous and much used continuous function—the normal distribution function.
probability generating function n. Statistics a function of a variable z which can be expressed as a power series in which the coefficient of zn is the probability that a given discrete random variable takes the integer value n.
ΚΠ
1940 Jrnl. Royal Statist. Soc. 103 8 F(z) is the probability-generating function (or in statistical mechanics, the partition function).
1968 P. A. P. Moran Introd. Probability Theory ii. 79 We consider the probability generating function obtained by multiplying (2.62) by zk and summing over the possible values.
2001 Proc. National Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 98 5702/1 For a given generation, this process is described by the following probability generating function.
probability paper n. a type of graph paper in which the ordinate is scaled so that a chosen cumulative distribution function may be plotted in a straight line against the variate as abscissa.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > mathematical instruments > [noun] > other
volutor1859
probability paper1914
1914 A. Hazen in Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers 77 1549 Probability Paper.—The practical difficulty with the plotting of Fig. 1 is the great curvature of the lines showing the required storage. This difficulty..has been removed by using paper ruled with lines spaced in accordance with a probability curve.
1998 Jrnl. Operational Res. Soc. 49 600/1 Similar inferences have been made by..plotting the residual values on a normal probability paper.
probability sample n. a sample obtained by a method based on probability theory, enabling one to calculate the probability of selection of any individual; a random sample.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > sample
sample1903
probability sample1947
quota sample1948
1947 W. E. Deming in Jrnl. Marketing 12 145 It has seemed useful to recognize two general types of samples. These two types will be distinguished here by the adjectives probability and judgment.]
1947 W. E. Deming in Jrnl. Marketing 12 151/1 The risk of sampling, in a professionally designed probability sample, is under control and known pretty closely.
1972 Jrnl. Social Psychol. 88 208 Field interviewers..administered the Rokeach Value Survey to a national probability sample of 1489 American adults.
2002 M. Schonlau et al. Conducting Res. Surv. via E-Mail & Web 27 If the respondents' e-mail addresses are unavailable and a probability sample is desired, respondents may then have to be contacted by mail.
probability space n. Statistics a space each point of which is an outcome and has a probability associated with it.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > probability > probability space
probability space1943
1943 Amer. Jrnl. Math. 65 268 We consider an abstract space Ω with a measure P of Lebesgue type;..that is, we consider a probability space.
1975 I. Stewart Concepts Mod. Math. xvii. 247 Axiomatic probability theory works entirely in terms of probability spaces.
1988 D. Welsh Codes & Cryptogr. i. 10 Suppose E1 and E2 are two events in a probability space Ω associated with some experiment.
probability theory n. Statistics a theory involving probabilities; spec. the branch of mathematics concerned with quantities having random distributions.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > probability > theoretical approach to
law of large numbers1837
Bayes' theorem1865
law of averages1875
probability theory1908
renewal theory1915
Bayesianism1976
1908 Proc. Royal Soc. A. 81 p. xli This wider probability-theory of entropy, which was first extended to radiation by Planck, is calculated to throw additional light..on the average constitution of the natural radiation.
1941 Mind 50 48 I shall here refer to the contrast between two very well-known types of probability-theory.
1962 Listener 15 Nov. 793/1 In psychological research, too, probability theory plays an essential part because many of the variables can be measured only approximately.
1992 J. Dominguez & V. Robin Your Money or Your Life ix. 296 You wouldn't think of engaging in a high-stakes game of poker without sufficient disposable capital, an extensive knowledge of probability theory and a good measure of apprenticeship.
probability wave n. Physics a particle considered as existing only as a set of probabilities until directly observed; a wave function describing the quantum-mechanical behaviour of such a particle.
ΚΠ
1929 Proc. Royal Soc. A. 122 361 If, as usual, action is identified with the phase of the probability wave, θ will represent the mutual action of the two electrons.
1942 Electronic Engin. 15 149/1 The term wave is commonly used in a very wide sense, to cover almost everything from a heat wave to the probability waves of modern physics.
1999 D. Mitchell Ghostwritten 342 One of the better read-up ones might put up their hand and say, ‘But Dr Muntervary, isn't an electron a charged probability wave?’
This entry has been updated (OED Third Edition, June 2007; most recently modified version published online June 2022).
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n.c1443- solitariety
- solitarily
- solitariness
- solitarinesses
- solitariousness
- solitarity
- solitarness
- solitary
- solitary bee
- solitary cuckoo
- solitary dodo
- solitary flycatcher
- solitary greenlet
- solitary parrot
- solitary sandpiper
- solitary snipe
- solitary sparrow
- solitary tattler
- solitary thrush
- solitary vireo
- solitary wasp
- solitary wave
- solitary worm
- soliton
- solitons