| 释义 |
likelihood|ˈlaɪklɪhʊd|
Forms as those of likely a. + 4–6 -hode, 5–6 -hod, 6– -hood. Also 5 lykeleod, 6 lightliwode, likeloode, lykelhood.
[f. likely a. + -hood.]
†1. Likeness; resemblance; similarity. Also an instance of this; a semblance, similitude. Obs.
1398Trevisa Barth. De P.R. i. (1495) 3 Parables & semblaunces or liklihodes of thynges naturelles and artyfycyelles. 1548Gest Pr. Masse B iiij, Sacramentes (sayth Augustin) vnlesse they haue certayne lykelyhode wyth the thynges wherof they be sygnes, they be no sacramentes at al. 1567J. Maplet Gr. Forest 11 It is called Iris for likeloode to the Rainebow. a1591R. Greenham Serm. i. (1599) 96 Thus wee see what likelihood there is betweene the spirit and fire. 1614Raleigh Hist. World i. (1634) 23 There is no likelihood between pure light and black darkness. 1642J. Ball Answ. Canne ii. 9 It hath too much likelihood to the masse-book. 1688R. Holme Armoury iii. 200/1 Fables [are] Tales of Untruth, yet have a likelyhood of Truth.
2. a. The quality or fact of being likely or probable; probability; an instance of this. Const. of; † occas. to with inf. † to take likelihood: to infer as a probability.
c1449Pecock Repr. i. xiv. 78 Principlis openest in probabilitie or likelihode to treuthis. 1472–3Rolls of Parlt. VI. 54/1 Seyng..theym selfe in likelyhode to be endamaged. 1488Paston Lett. III. 344 They sey [= saw] no lykeleod that they schuld have lycens. 1509Fisher Funeral Serm. C'tess Richmond Wks. (1876) 309 Who may not nowe take euydent lyklyhode & coniecture vpon this, that [etc.]. 1583Stubbes Anat. Abus. ii. (1882) 14 The prince may pardon the offender, if there appeere likelyhoode of amendment in him. 1611Bible Transl. Pref. 2 Neither is there any likelihood, that [etc.]. 1630J. Levett Ord. Bees (1634) 38 In May or June..there is no great likelihood of a second or third swarm. a1656Bp. Hall Rem. Wks. (1660) 9 Hearing of the likelyhood of my removal. 1717Entertainer No. 7 (1718) 39 The State may be in great Likelihood to suffer Shipwreck. 1758Johnson Idler No. 67 ⁋6 There was a likelihood of rain. 1856Froude Hist. Eng. (1858) II. ix. 397 That he really might be too late appeared an immediate likelihood. 1867Freeman Norm. Conq. (1876) I. v. 301 The story has strong internal likelihood in its favour.
b. In phrases (mostly obsolete) † by likelihood, † by all or most likelihood, † in, in all likelihood, † of likelihood: in all probability, probably.
1433Rolls of Parlt. IV. 423/1 Ye which had ellys by liklyhode be lost. 1486C'tess Oxford in Four C. Eng. Lett. 7 To the entente by alle lykelyhod, to finde the waies and meanes to gete shipping. 1491Act 7 Hen. VII, c. 5 §1 Every quinzime..of liklyhode shalbe gretly mynysshed and lessed. 1525Ld. Berners Froiss. II. clxviii. [clxiv.] 270 Their speres grated nat; if they had, by moost lykelhod they had taken hurte. 1585Abp. Sandys Serm. xvi. 287 The eldest, & therefore by likelyhoode the discreetest seruant of his house. 1599Shakes. Much Ado iv. i. 238 Then I can lay it downe in likelihood. 1600W. Watson Decacordon (1602) 121 Who of likelihood..was possessed..with so affectionate an opinion of his brothers aduancement, that [etc.]. 1631Weever Anc. Funeral Mon. 812 It hath no Inscription, but in likelyhood it is the Tombe of Sir Roger. 1664Power Exp. Philos. iii. 189 In all likelihood, he that made this great Automaton of the world, will not destroy it, till [etc.]. 1697W. Dampier Voy. I. 95 By all likelihood these ridges of Mountains do run in a continued Chain from one end of Peru and Chili to the other. 1762–71H. Walpole Vertue's Anecd. Paint. (1786) I. 259 Oliver..was in all likelyhood of French extraction. 1862Mrs. Carlyle Lett. III. 102 In all likelihood we will go home together on Monday.
c. the likelihood: the probable fact, or the probable amount. Now rare exc. Sc.
1455Rolls of Parlt. V. 287/1 The lyklyhode of the costes and expenses..weyed and considered. 1542–5Brinklow Lament. (1874) 85 Yea & yet knowe not you whether they heare you or not, as the likelyhode is they do not. 1894G. Meredith Ld. Ormont III. xii. 241 The likelihood is, she'll feel bound in honour to serve him faithfully for the rest of their wedded days. Mod. Sc. The likelihood is I'll not be able to go.
†3. Something that is likely, a probability; hence, a ground of probable inference, an indication, sign. Frequent in pl. Obs.
1541Act 33 Hen. VIII, c. 21 §1 The likelihoodes and apparances being so far contrarie to that, which..is nowe founde true. 1576Turberv. Venerie 23 If there be two [dewclaws] it is an euill likelyhoode. 1591Shakes. Two Gent. v. ii. 43 These likelihoods confirme her flight from hence. 1601Sir W. Cornwallis Disc. Seneca (1631) 63 Man cannot divine what end followeth beginning, the nearest is a likelyhood. 1611Speed Theat. Gt. Brit. xliii. (1614) 85/2 Which..by high-wayes paved leading unto it, and other likelihoods, seems to have beene a worke of the Romanes. a1641Suckling Lett. (1646) 64 Thrusting upon your judgment impossibilities for likelyhoods. 1649Milton Eikon. 119 Against which testimonies, likelyhoods, evidences, the bare denyall of one man cannot countervaile. 1656Earl of Monmouth tr. Boccalini's Advts. fr. Parnass. i. xxiii. (1674) 24 This last is a suspition grounded only upon likelihoods.
4. The quality of offering a prospect of success; ‘promise’. Now only as an echo of Shakespeare.
1596Shakes. 1 Hen. IV, iii. ii. 45 A fellow of no marke, nor likelyhood. 1606G. W[oodcocke] Hist. Ivstine vi. 31 Amongst all the..Captaines..there was none of greater likelihood. 1818Lamb Lett. xi. 104 There are actresses of greater merit and likelihood than you. 1847L. Hunt Men, Women & B. II. x. 232 An individual of no mark or likelihood.
Add:[2.] d. Statistics. A function of a (variable) hypothesis which, given some observations, is proportional to the probability of getting those observations given the hypothesis; a function of the variable parameters of a family of probability distributions that depends on a fixed set of data and is equal to the probability of the data, if these are assumed to relate to a population whose distribution has the given parameters.
1922R. A. Fisher in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. CCXXII. 326, I suggest that we may speak..of the likelihood of one value of p being thrice the likelihood of another, bearing always in mind that likelihood is not here used loosely as a synonym of probability, but simply to express the relative frequencies with which such values of the hypothetical quantity p would in fact yield the observed sample. Ibid. 367 It is proposed to use the term likelihood to designate the state of our information with respect to the parameters of hypothetical populations. 1933Med. Res. Council Special Rep. Ser. No. 183. 39 The conception of likelihood was introduced by Fisher in 1921, but..its properties are not yet universally known. 1972A. W. F. Edwards (title) Likelihood. 1974― in Nature 6 Dec. 509/3 Since P is the probability of what was observed, given N, it is the likelihood of the hypothesis N given what was observed. 1987Nature 25 June 663/1 My complaint about..estimating the probability of a future nuclear accident was that they had ignored the distinction between probability and likelihood, thereby committing a logical error which had led them to estimate the probability with unjustified precision.
5. attrib. and Comb. (in sense *2 d) likelihood function.
1932Biometrika XXIV. 476 For a specified sample (i) F, (ii) Fa and (iii) Fm may be considered as functions of population parameters, and will be called *likelihood functions or simply L-functions of (i) the sample, (ii) the variances and covariances, and (iii) the means. 1962J. Riordan Stochastic Service Syst. vi. 126 It turns out that the formulation of a likelihood function for the stationary case is excessively complicated. 1972A. W. F. Edwards Likelihood ii. 13 Although the likelihood function, and hence the curve, has the mathematical form of a beta-distribution, it does not represent a statistical distribution in any sense. 1987European Jrnl. Operational Res. XXXII. 291 The posterior measure under a partial prior information, which is constructed on the maximized likelihood function, is compatible with the Bayesian properties of the likelihood sets.
likelihood ratio, the ratio of two likelihoods based on alternative hypotheses about the parameters of a distribution, used in testing these hypotheses.
1938Ann. Math. Statistics ix. 60 (title) The large-sample distribution of the *likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses. 1972A. W. F. Edwards Likelihood ix. 176 Neyman and Pearson were attracted to the likelihood ratio on intuitive grounds in advance of their realization that their theory of testing led necessarily to it. 1987IEEE Trans. Aerospace & Electronic Syst. XXIII. 789/1 Optimization of a distributed detection network using the minimum global cost criterion results in local processors that individually form the likelihood ratio when the input observation vectors are statistically independent. |